Overall, I’m underwhelmed. Handset quality and clunkiness versus feature mix are widely considered to be major factors in the fizzling of FOMA to date. I think J-Phone will have to market like heck to convince people these are any better than current (great-quality) 2G models, and if DoCoMo launches better 3G models (as they are expected to do very soon), J-Phone could be in trouble.
KDDI’s 3G network is a success (3,293,300 subscribers as of Oct. 31) because the network is great, there is nationwide coverage (due to backwards compatibility), and the handsets are **really** terrific – not because W-CDMA is bad. I thoroughly enjoyed reading “Asia’s 3G edge in mobile-phone market” on the Straits Times’ site yesterday; it may be this week’s news of most lasting significance. The authors state this regions’ advanced handsets – with color displays, data capabilities, and long battery life – give Asian makers like Sharp, NEC, Panasonic, and Samsung a clear technological advantage over rivals in Europe and the US.
I picked up the November cell phone catalogs from several carriers the other day, including DoCoMo (for 3G FOMA), KDDI, and Tu-ka, as well as the J-Sky service catalog from J-Phone. You really needn’t look much further than these monthly catalogs if you want a concise, full-color, and neatly packaged window into the marketing plans and keitai sales hopes of the major Japanese carriers. Depending on which handset you have, you can now access data networks at 9.6, 28.8, 64, or 384 Kbps – and many devices can access two networks. Note that 64 Kbps data is available via FOMA (the 3G network) and via PHS (not formally called “2G” but certainly not 3G). Finally, there’s the Mzone WLAN service that operates at hotspots inside the Yamanote line and at a few other locations.
DoCoMo’s recent troubles highlight a fundamental aspect of Japan’s wireless Internet revolution that I haven’t seen discussed much – namely, the sheer improbability of it all. In 1999 and 2000, during the ascendancy of i-mode, headlines and media quotes from interested parties were quick to praise the insight and innovation of those involved in i-mode’s creation, including the famous Enoki-Matsunaga-Natsuno troika as well as sundry network engineers, Internet-savvy marketers, and handset designers both inside DoCoMo and out.
WWJ contributor Michael Thuresson was in Las Vegas, Nevada, last week and managed to pull himself away from the one-armed bandits long enough to drop in on the CTIA “Wireless IT and Internet 2002” fall show. His report below was culled from a late-night, bleary-eyed email dispatch (italicized annotations partly contributed by me). Who says war correspondents in Kandahar have more fun than tech stringers in Vegas? 😉
I received some interesting commentary last week from Kennedy Gitchel, self-described “Long-time Japan resident and wireless watcher” and — until recently — consultant at a major foreign consulting house. Gitchel was responding to a recent WWJ Viewpoint wherein we stated “the cost of fixed-line access plays very little or **no** part in Japan’s mobile Net boom,” to point out that the initial total cost of fixed line access is, in fact, a hefty proposition when you consider both the cost of installing a new phone line and monthly fees together.
A couple of interesting events took place in Tokyo last Friday. The American Chamber of Commerce hosted their Fourth Annual E-Business Summit, while Credit Suisse First Boston’s lead telecoms analyst Mark Berman conducted a 3G/Wireless Internet Conference. Some interesting points came out of both. Afterwards, Kobe University’s Jeff Funk commented that the predicted fall in 3G packet prices is “interesting,” while Matsumoto’s additional arguments — that the US is a car society and thus Japan’s experience isn’t relevant — was not valid since “SMS is doing well in Europe and DoCoMo claim that i-mode revenues per person are independent of the region in Japan.”
NTT DoCoMo took it square on the chin this week, announcing it would book extraordinary losses of 573 billion yen against its investments in three major foreign partners, KPN, AT&T Wireless, and Hutchison 3G. The company cited the slowdown in the global telecommunications market, and it would be natural to suspect the Sanno Park Tower strategists are back in their corner, applying ice and stitching wounds. Industry watchers, meanwhile, are having a field day. hOWEVER, this week’s write-down represents mere pachinko pocket change for DoCoMo, and, as potentially one of Japan’s (and by extension, the world’s) most profitable companies, the carrier is well on its way to creating something that the Europeans are still trying to sort out: a functioning W-CDMA network.
Early this year, there was some comment in the open press concluding that the US was the world’s leading source of wireless innovation and technology expertise (“Europe Had Decisive Wireless Lead, But Lost It to US With Poor Moves”). Well, the good news is that finding some of those smaller, innovative creators of made-right-here-in-Japan, ready-to-be-exported mobile technology is getting an awful lot easier. We spent yesterday at Sun’s JavaOne conference in Yokohama, and there was an interesting line-up of companies displaying their wares on the showroom floor.
I was sitting in the DoCoMo shop in Machida last week waiting to cancel my second PHS data card (which we rarely use since we got a home WLAN), when it suddenly occurred to me: there’s no enterprise wireless data market in Japan because the carriers — yes, the **carriers** — don’t want one. NTT DoCoMo announced that consolidated revenues from “packet communications services” (read: i-mode) reached 715,600 million yen, up **102 percent** from the year before. Clearly, revenues from wireless data are booming, and if the corporate market has not yet been tapped, just think of the riches that will flow to the likes of DoCoMo, J-Phone, and KDDI when it is.
