In early 1999, Japan’s top mobile-phone company, NTT DoCoMo, received cheers from customers and analysts alike for introducing its i-mode mobile Internet service. The service, which claims 37 million subscribers and lets them check stock quotes, sports, news and other information over their cell phones, was hailed as the greatest invention in Japan since the Walkman.
Berman warns, however, that with a typical handset cost of 37,000 yen in the latest quarter, “it will require about 23 months to cover [the] cost for upgrade customers.” He goes on to state that this creates a difficult situation for KDDI, wherein there’s lots of room for concern for the cost of the 2G-to-3G upgrade cycle. Remember, too, that KDDI has committed to launching a 1X EV-DO upgrade in late 2003. Will it have to commit to another two-year cycle to convert subscribers to the new system? If so, the expense half of their balance sheet may get a little out of control no matter how strong the revenue side remains.
KDDI Corp. reported group net profit of 30.87 billion yen for the fiscal third quarter, while boosting its full-year-earnings forecast by five billion yen, citing healthy consumer demand for its flagship “au” mobile-phone service, lower marketing costs, and restructuring. For the quarter ended Dec. 31, KDDI posted sales of 695.08 billion yen and operating profit of 56.80 billion yen.
The level of roaming in particular is a new feature for the market, and they face a sales challenge in figuring out how to sell this to a high-end business crowd – radically unlike J-Phone’s traditional youth target. But I think that today, almost 4 years after the invention of i-mode, provision of wireless Internet is an absolute requirement for success in the Japan market, and the absence of J-Sky access – both Web and mail – with some ill-defined “later in 2003” target is a major weakness.
“Camera phone penetration is increasing. With the newest handsets – particularly in DoCoMo’s case – the packet downloads have just surged. So you’ve got much higher packet usage – two to three times higher now on the camera phones,” says CSFB sr. telecoms analyst Mark Berman. Watch our 2003 kick-off program as we pick the brain of one of Tokyo’s most respected industry watchers on what to expect in ’03. DoCoMo, KDDI, J-Phone, ARPU, data trends, and multimedia: these are a few of our favorite things!
Keisuke-san says his 2-1/2-year-old daughter is already interested in communicating visually on both mobile phone and on the set-top video system that he has in his SOHO office. “She sometimes says to me,’Dad, let’s do videoconferencing.’ I do not think that she understands the literal meaning of the words but she is kind of getting used to stand or sit in front of a monitor that shows a person talking on the other end of a live video call. She looks [like she’s] just enjoying it.”
