CIAJ Telecom EQ. Demand Forecast
CIAJ Releases Mid-Term Demand Equip. Forecast, interesting numbers on Smartphones: http://bit.ly/sOaB0Q
The Communications and Information network Association of Japan (CIAJ), a general incorporated association, released its “FY2011 Mid-Term Demand Forecast for Telecommunication Equipment” covering FY2011 through FY2016 as follows. This year’s Forecast continues to look at the trend of smartphones. It also focuses on global market trends.
The popularity of smartphones helped to bring about a recovery in demand in the cellular handset market and a resumption in capital investments among enterprises is reflected in the recovery of business equipment. All categories under infrastructure equipment showed positive growth and despite the year-over-year decrease in Internet equipment due to tapering off of NGN investments by telecommunication carriers, the total telecommunications equipment market figure for FY2010 was approximately 3.459 trillion yen, or a Year-over-year positive growth of 7.8%.
The domestic market in FY2011 is expected to show acceleration in demand growth of smartphones and the resulting spike in data traffic increasing investments in base stations. Strong performance of exports is expected to push digital transmission equipment and office-use multi-functioning facsimiles into positive growth. On the other hand, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in March is expected to have resulted in negative Year-over-year growth for consumer market categories, such as cordless phones, personal facsimiles, personal multi-functioning facsimiles, office-use facsimiles (excluding multi-functioning facsimiles), PBX, fixed communication equipment and optical access equipment.
All together, the total telecommunication equipment market figure for FY2011 is forecast at approximately 3.588 trillion yen, or a positive Year-over-year growth of 3.7%.
A gradual decline in the overall population and number of households, as well as the number of enterprises and offices is expected from FY2012 onwards. Looking at the mid-term future, the wide-spread use of smartphones and the accompanying capital investment by telecommunication carriers for high-speed services should stimulate new demand growth, but after peaking in FY2012, it is expected to revert to gradual negative growth.
From these assumptions, the total market value in FY2016 is forecast at approximately 3.416 trillion yen, or a decrease of 1.2% over the figure for FY2010.