The MCPC Smartphone Promotion Committee just released their Smartphone Trend and Evolution in Japan paper: http://bit.ly/mQovu8
Smartphone Trend and Evolution in Japan
1.2 Medium-Term Smartphone Market Forecasts
Based on a joint survey conducted by MCPC and Impress R&D, MCPC estimates that there were 4.97 million smartphone contracts (3.8 million individual contracts and 1.17 million corporate contracts) in place at the end of March 2010 (fiscal 2009). We forecast that this number will soar 63% to 8.1 million contracts (6.34 million individual contracts and 1.76 million corporate contracts) by the end of March 2011 (fiscal 2010). We believe this to be the result of the fiscal 2010 release of new models such as the iPhone 4 and smartphones incorporating Android, as well as the launch of services that promote a switch from previous models, such as allowing i-mode e-mail addresses to be used on smartphones. Growth in the smartphone market will continue, with 47.12 million contracts (41.64 million individual contracts and 5.48 million corporate contracts) forecast by the end of March 2016.
Source: MCPC / Impress R&D joint survey conducted in September 2010